NBA DFS (Sunday, Feb. 6): Top model picks and value plays on DraftKings and FanDuel


NBA Player templates are the cornerstone of our NBA product. They house our projections for every player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trending tools and more.

Let’s dive into our patterns, position by position, looking at the guys with some of the highest ceiling projections, as well as the players that stand out as values ​​with our projected over/under predictive metric.

Also, remember that for large field tournaments you can use our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to create your teams by hand.

Note: Leverage projections and scores/ratings may change throughout the day after the publication of this article. Check player models directly for any updates.

peak guard

Upper cap: Luka Doncic vs. Atlanta Hawks – $12,000 DraftKings, $11,600 FanDuel

Luka Doncic took his game to a new level recently. He has scored 70+ DraftKings points in three straight games. Meanwhile, Doncic is averaging a whopping triple-double with 35.7 points, 12.0 assists and 10.3 rebounds per game. He also has an average utilization rate of 38.9% and has attempted 27.7 field goals per game. Doncic is second in the league in terms of usage, averaging 35.9% per game.

The Mavericks are three-point home favorites as they host the Hawks, who rank 27th in defensive ratings this season. play without Kristaps Porzingis and Tim Hardaway Jr.. has taken Doncic to an even higher ceiling lately. During that four-game streak, Doncic also averaged +12.4 DraftKings Plus/Minus. It’s a great game to target Doncic’s high potential.

Best value: Kevin Porter Jr. vs. New Orleans Pelicans – $5,700 DraftKings, $6,700 FanDuel

A disease made Kevin Porter Jr.. leaving the last game, so it might be a little risky, but he’s not on the injury report for tonight. Porter Jr. has been very good recently, and this price on DraftKings is too low. He is the top playmaker on the board, as he has a 93% trading rating on DraftKings. Over the past seven games, Porter Jr. has averaged 17.1 points, 8.3 assists and 35.9 DraftKings points per game.

This game between the Rockets and Pelicans features the slate’s highest total at 231.5 points. This game should be filled with fantastic goodness. The Pelicans rank 21st in defensive standings this season, allowing 109.4 points per game. Porter Jr. continues to lead the Rockets in usage rate with 23.9 percent. Prioritize Porter Jr. on DraftKings because of his very affordable average salary.

shooting guard

Upper cap: Brandon Ingram at the Houston Rockets – $8,700 DraftKings, $7,800 FanDuel

Back from injury Brandon Ingram had back-to-back promising matches. He’s averaging 24.5 points and 46.6 DraftKings points per game. Despite being the third most expensive shooting guard on DraftKings, Ingram leads the way in our ceiling throw tournament model. When doing it from the perimeter, Ingram can display monster numbers.

Playing against the Rockets always offers the best game possible. They rank last in defensive rating and first in pace this season. The Rockets are allowing a league-high 117 points per game, which is a wide margin over the next closest team. They continue to bring up the rear in the Western Conference because this young team just can’t defend. Ingram should enjoy this game.

Best Value: Jalen Green vs. New Orleans Pelicans – $4,600 DraftKings, $4,600 FanDuel

Stay with this same game environment, jalen green has a chance for another big game on his low salary. Eric Gordon was also intriguing, but Green just played a lot better than Gordon and we know he’s in the plans to move forward with this Rockets team. Green is actually third on the team in field goal usage and second in minutes and field goal attempts. He is a very aggressive player.

Where Green can take advantage of the Pelicans defense is behind the arc. They allow the second highest percentage behind the arc at 36.8%. Green is second on the Rockets with 6.1 3-point attempts per game. He only shoots 29.5% from downtown, but the volume is there for a potentially massive game. It’s a cheap way to get exposed to the Rockets tonight.

small forward

Upper cap: Jayson Tatum at Orlando Magic – $10,600 DraftKings, $9,800 FanDuel

The Celtics have finally gotten into the rhythm lately, winning 11 of their last 15 games largely thanks to the play of Jayson Tatum. This is mentioned every time Tatum is in this article, but he’s a very up and coming player and it’s hard to avoid, especially in this game. Tatum is tied for the seventh-highest usage rate in the league. Prioritize Tatum on FanDuel, where he has a 94% trading rating.

The Celtics are the biggest favorite on the slate with 9.5 points. However, that game total is the lowest on the slate at 215.5 points, largely due to the Celtics playing at the 24th-slowest pace this season. The Magic rank 23rd in defensive rating. They allow opponents to shoot 34.6% from behind the arc, which is perfect for Tatum who is averaging 4.3 3-pointers made per game in his last seven games.

Best Value: Isaac Okoro vs. Indiana Pacers – $4,000 DraftKings, $3,800 FanDuel

isaac okoro is one of those players who plays a ton of minutes but has a ridiculously low usage rate. He can have ceiling play sporadically in some matchups. Although he only had one game where he scored more than 22 FanDuel points, he had a positive plus/minus on FanDuel in seven consecutive games. Its price still remains incredibly cheap, as it is a good source of value on this list.

Darius Garland and Lauri Markkanen are both questionable, but they will affect other players more than Okoro due to its low usage rate. The Pacers put on a great game, as they rank 26th in defensive standings. They may also be healthier with Malcolm Brogdon possibly back. There’s a lot of news to watch for this game, but Okoro will play long minutes no matter who plays.

Power forward

Upper cap: Giannis Antetokounmpo at the Los Angeles Clippers – $12,200 DraftKings, $11,400 FanDuel

The Milwaukee Bucks absolutely blew the Trail Blazers last night by 29 points, which took just 25 minutes to Giannis Antetokounmpo. In those minutes, Giannis still had 29 points, nine rebounds and six assists for 52.8 DraftKings points. The Bucks are just 4.5-point favorites against the Clippers, which is a perfect ceiling opportunity for Giannis to show off his skills.

This game also has the second-highest total on the roster with 228 points. Our model has Giannis with the highest cap on the slate for DraftKings and FanDuel, which shouldn’t come as too much of a surprise. He’s actually cheaper than Doncic on FanDuel, which translates to a 94% trading odds. Prioritize Giannis on FanDuel with steals and blocks counting for more, but he’s a great game regardless.

Best Value: Al Horford at Orlando Magic – $5,200 DraftKings, $5,300 FanDuel

Veteran Al Horford is one of the best power forward values ​​on DraftKings and FanDuel. After a few bad games, Horford is finally starting to regain confidence. Over the past three games, Horford is averaging eight points and 10.3 rebounds per game. He has nine double-doubles this season, which offers a nice boost to his salary tonight.

A potential big loss for Magic’s frontcourt is Mo Bamba being debatable. Usually, a questionable midday tag is never a good sign that the player is getting dressed. With Bamba out of lineup this season, the Magic have seen a drop in both defensive rating and rebound percentage. Horford is a great mid-range play, although this game’s total is the lowest on the slate.


Upper cap: Jonas Valanciunas at the Houston Rockets – $8,300 DraftKings, $7,200 FanDuel

Jonas Valanciunas is another Pelicans player who could dominate in this game against the Rockets. He has a 96% trading rating on FanDuel, where he jumps the most. Since returning from a non-COVID illness, Valanciunas has averaged a near-double-double with 15.7 points and 9.7 rebounds per game over his past three games. He is slowly regaining his shape.

Like I mentioned, this game against the Rockets is great, especially in the middle position. The Rockets are allowing the second-most points in the paint this season at 50.8 per game. They gave up a ridiculous 68 points in the paint in their last game against Spurs. Valanciunas should dominate the paint because the Rockets don’t really have the size to fight him in the lane.

Best value: Wendell Carter Jr. vs. Boston Celtics – $6,900 DraftKings, $7,700 FanDuel

The highest rated player in our model tonight for DraftKings is Wendell Carter Jr.. It is in the best price section due to its cheapness compared to other centers on the slate, especially on DraftKings. Carter Jr. has been amazing lately. Since returning from injury, Carter Jr. is averaging 15.9 points, 10.3 rebounds and 34.3 DraftKings points per game over his last eight games.

As I mentioned before, the Magic could play without Mo Bamba tonight. It hasn’t affected Carter Jr.’s production too much this season, but it should solidify his playing time. The Magic being in so many blowouts has affected minutes for Carter Jr., who has kept his salary in check. This is another massive spread, but there is an upside with the way he played.


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